Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Spain: much more than food and sun

With the current economic environment, the world’s perception of Spain has been downgraded in the last 5 years. Government bond yields soared, credit ratings have fallen sharply and corruption scandals are often blamed of Spain’s economic situation by foreign analysts… And as a matter of fact, we do have problems, but as any other country in a worldwide crisis where Brazil’s current growth is merely 0.9% and China’s double digit rates are gone.
Some could feel that many red flags, panic buttons and other pressures thrown over Spain are orchestrated by some countries with conflicting interests.  We are wrongly pictured only as a sunny holiday destination where food and alcohol are cheap and where foreigners are allowed to do whatever they are not in their home countries.
Fortunately, we do have some examples to show we can offer something else to our very welcome foreign friends.
Some facts
§  Despite the crisis and our shameless politicians (but this is another story), Spain is the 4th largest economy in the euro zone, 5th in the EU and the world’s 12th largest economy[1].  
§  Spain has a powerful network of infrastructures, placed among the world’s top ten countries with the best quality in this field[2].
§  It ranks Europe’s 3rd in terms of passenger air traffic and 4th in maritime freight transport in the EU.
§  Spain offers a geostrategic position as EU member, bridge between Africa and Europe, and key party for establishing relationships with Latin America.
§  IBEX 35 listed companies generate over 60% of their revenue abroad.
§  The worlds’ busiest airport, Heathrow, is managed by a Spanish firm (Ferrovial).
§  Many underground railway lines have been built and are currently managed by Spanish corporations (Dragados extension of NY subway system).
§  A third of the world’s air traffic, as well as 100% of Germany’s airspace, are managed through systems developed and installed by a Spanish company (Amadeus).
§  The world’s largest textile firm, with over 5,500 stores around all five continents is Spanish (Inditex).


Leadership by sector
§  Renewable energies:
o   1st country in Europe in wind power production, 4th worldwide in terms of installed capacity (Iberdrola is the world’s top producer)
o   Abengoa is the world’s leading company in renewable energies.
o   Endesa is one of the five largest electric companies in the world.
o   World’s 4th manufacturer of wind turbines (Gamesa).
§  Infrastructures:
o   The world’s largest highway concessions company is Ferrovial.
o   6 of the world’s 10 largest companies in infrastructure management are Spanish (Abertis, Ferrovial, FCC, OHL, ACS/Dragados, Sacyr Vallehermoso).
o   1/3 of the world’s air traffic is managed through Amadeus.
o   Spanish companies are a reference in building and managing railway infrastructures
§  Automotive sector: Spain ranks 2nd among European vehicle manufacturers and 9th worldwide, topping the ranks in industrial vehicles.
§  Financial sector:
o   Two of the world’s principal financial institutions are Spanish (Santander & BBVA).
o   The best bank in the world is Santander[3].
o   12% of the British banking system is controlled by Santander.
§  Healthcare technologies:
o   Spain ranks 1st in Europe and 3rd worldwide in the field of agrobiotechnolgy. It also ranks 5th in the world in biochemistry and molecular biology.
o   Grifols is the world’s 3rd largest producer of blood derivatives and plasma.
o   We are the country with highest donations rate in the world. The Spanish model for transplant management has been recommended by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
§  Food and agriculture:
o   World’s leading producer of rice and 2nd of pasta (Ebro foods).
o   Top producer and exporter of olive oil.
o   World’s top exporter of fruit and vegetables.
o   Spain has the world’s largest extension of vineyards and ranks 3rd worldwide as a wine producer and 2nd as wine exporter.
§  Tourism:
o   Spain is the world’s top holiday destinations, the 2nd most visited country and ranks 2nd in terms of tourism revenue.
o   5 Spanish companies are among the world’s 30 most important hotel groups and one of them is the world’s leading hotel chain.

And the list could go further on, as I have only focused on business. The take out would be that with only over 30 years of democratic history and openness to the rest of the world, Spain has performed  fairly well. In that sense, we should be less pessimistic and be re-assured that as a country, Spain is not that far behind other countries as most people think.
So, next time you think “hey, Nordic countries beat us in almost every single field”, take a minute, enjoy a refreshing glass of Cava and think of what we achieved. After all, we are the only ambassadors that could change our foreign friend’s minds.
PS: Next time I will be much more critical with Spain as reality is far from ideal, but I felt it was right to bring some light on what our industry have achieved so far. 
 

Notes:
1: In GDP terms
2: According to the Global Competitiveness Index 2012-2013
3: According to Euromoney Magazine 2012

Sources:
“Spain’s positioning: Leadership key factors”, Marca España
The Economist
CNN Money

 

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Supermercados ineficientes?

(English below)
Hasta ahora hemos hablado de bancos centrales, reguladores y entorno macro. Hoy me gustaría comentar algo más del día a día, cercano al ciudadano de a pie.
No hace mucho se creó un gran revuelo en España después que el Gobierno decidiera cambiar la fecha de caducidad de los yogures por la fecha de “consumo preferente”. Hablaré desde mi experiencia en UK, ya que es ahí donde hago la compra semanal y el tema en España lo desconozco totalmente.
Los supermercados en UK etiquetan la gran  mayoría de productos con dos tipos distintos de fechas:
-          “Display until” o fecha de exposición: Es la fecha hasta la cual el producto puede estar expuesto en tienda.
-          “Best before” o fecha de consumo preferente: Fecha a partir de la cual el fabricante/comerciante indica que el producto puede empezar a perder algunas de sus propiedades, sin implicar riesgos para la salud.
La diferencia principal es que al etiquetar un producto con fecha de caducidad, la mayoría de la gente calificará de forma automática el producto como no comestible una vez se rebase dicha fecha. Y ello cuando en el 99.9% de los casos el producto todavía es apto para su consumo. Cuántas veces no hemos tirado un yogur tan solo un día después de la fecha de caducidad?
De ahí se derivan varias  consecuencias:
-          Al ver un producto cercano a su fecha de caducidad en la estantería de un supermercado, evitaremos comprarlo, ya que buscaremos otro más reciente por el mismo precio.
-          Si todos actuamos según el razonamiento anterior, los supermercados se quedan con un montón de productos que no pueden vender y, por tanto, son una pérdida.
-          Si el producto ya lo hemos comprado y ha caducado, lo tiraremos aunque este sea comestible.
-          A nivel global, podemos estar desperdiciando toneladas de comida perfectamente apta para su uso.
Lo que se demuestra es que hay una clara ineficiencia de mercado y, en mi opinión, el sistema británico lo solventa en gran parte. Que conste que desconozco si el sistema es de origen británico, americano, alemán o camboyano. Lo importante es la forma de solventar dicha ineficiencia.
Consideremos primero las fechas. Mientras que la fecha de caducidad es restrictiva, la fecha de consumo preferente es indicativa. Ello significa que la vida útil del producto puede alargarse sin entrañar peligro alguno para la salud. Simplemente, el consumidor deberá aplicar un poco de sentido común antes de consumir un producto que haya rebasado dicha fecha.
Ahora consideremos el precio. Lo que vemos diariamente en los supermercados británicos es que, conforme el producto se acerca a la fecha de exposición, este se rebaja de precio. Y tiene toda la lógica del mundo.
Siguiendo el ejemplo del yogur: Tengo dos yogures a 1€. Uno caduca en 15 días y el otro mañana. Por el mismo precio, compraré el más fresco y dejaré el que caduca en la tienda. Pero si en lugar de costar lo mismo el supermercado aplica diferenciación de precios, y el yogur fresco cuesta 1€ mientras que el que caduca me cuesta 30 céntimos, puede que decida comprar el yogur barato. La cuestión es que se trata del mismo yogur, misma marca, mismo sabor y perfectamente apto para consumir. Un ganga, no?
Mediante la eliminación de la fecha de caducidad y aplicando diferenciación de precios:
-          Se elimina una ineficiencia de mercado
-          Se reducen las toneladas de comida desperdiciada
-          El supermercado evita pérdidas por los productos no vendidos
-          Los productos se hacen asequibles a un rango de clientes más amplio
Considerando la situación económica mundial, y en especial en España, iniciativas como esta deberían ser bienvenidas y aplicadas en la mayoría de establecimientos. Solamente dejaros unas cifras:
-          En el mundo hay 850 millones de personas que sufren hambre diariamente.
-          Cada año, los consumidores de países ricos desperdician 222 millones de toneladas de comida
-          El desperdicio en Europa y Norte América es de 95 a 115kg per cápita

English:
Inefficient supermarkets?
So far we have spoken central banks, regulators and the macro environment. Today I would like to comment on something more closer to our day to day, to the average citizen.
Not long ago there was much controversy in Spain after the government decided to change the expiry date of yoghurts by the "Best before" date. I will speak from my UK experience only, as here is where I do the weekly shopping and I do not know  anything about the topic in Spain.
UK supermarkets label the vast majority of products with two different kinds of dates: 
-          "Display until": The date until which the product may be exposed to in store
-           "Best before": The date on which the manufacturer/dealer indicates that the product may begin to lose some of its properties, without involving health risks.
The main difference is that by labeling a product with an expiry date, most people would automatically qualify the product as inedible after the due date. In 99.9% of cases the product is still suitable for consumption. How many times have we thrown a yoghurt just one day after the expiry date?
Therefore we can observe some consequences:
-          When viewing a product close to its expiry date on the shelf of a supermarket, we will avoid buying it because we will find another one more recent at the same price.
-          If we all act according to the reasoning above, the supermarkets are left with a lot of products they cannot sell and, therefore, are a waste and a loss for them.
-          If the product we bought expired, will throw it away even if it is suitable for consumption.
-          Globally, we may be wasting tons of food perfectly suitable for use.
What this shows is that there is clear market inefficiency and, in my opinion, the British system has largely solved it. For the record, I do not know if the system is of British, American, German or Cambodian origin. The important thing is how to solve this inefficiency.
Let’s consider first dates. While the expiry date is restrictive, the best before date is indicative. This means that the shelf life can be extended without causing any danger to health. Simply, the consumer must apply some common sense before consuming a product which has exceeded that date.
Let’s consider the price now. What we see daily in British supermarkets is that as the product comes close to the display until date, the price is reduced. And it is perfectly reasonable.
Following the example of yoghurt: I have two yoghurt worth €1. One expires in 15 days and the other one tomorrow. For the same price, I’ll buy the newer yoghurt and leave the one which expires sooner. But if instead, the supermarket applies price differentiation and the fresh yoghurt costs €1 while the “old” one 30 cents, I may decide to buy the cheap yoghurt. The point is that this is the same yoghurt, same brand, same flavour and perfectly suitable for consumption. A bargain, right?
By removing the expiry date and applying price differentiation:
-          Market inefficiency is solved
-          Tons of wasted food are reduced
-          The supermarket avoids losses for the unsold products
-          The products are made affordable to a wider range of customers
Considering the global economic situation, especially in Spain, initiatives such as this should be welcomed and implemented in most establishments. I’ll leave you some figures:
-          Worldwide more than 850 million people do not have enough to eat
-          Every year, consumers in rich countries waste 222 million tons of food
-          Per capita waste by consumers is between 95 and115 kg a year in Europe and North America,

http://www.foodbanking.org/site/PageServer?pagename=work_impact_foodwaste

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

The Electricity Market


ENGLISH BELOW
Hoy hablaremos sobre algunas particularidades del mercado eléctrico respecto al resto de commodities energéticos, y es que el hecho de que la electricidad no se pueda “almacenar” afecta decisivamente a su generación, comercialización, transporte y distribución. Eso lleva a que deba producirse prácticamente en cada momento la misma cantidad que se consume
Generación: La electricidad se produce en centrales de generación las cuales se clasifican según la tecnología de la que provenga la energía: renovables (hidráulica o eólica principalmente), centrales nucleares, centrales térmicas de carbón, centrales térmicas de gas, etc.
Comercialización: Es un mercado competitivo donde los comercializadores buscan e intentan diferenciarse mediante nuevos productos u ofertas innovadoras para la distribución de electricidad: oferta conjunta de gas y electricidad, servicio de mantenimiento, etc.
Distribución: Contrariamente a la generación y a la comercialización, las actividades de transporte y distribución son monopolios naturales.
Operador del Sistema: Gestiona los mercados de servicios complementarios y de balance. Es un monopolio natural.
Operador del Mercado: Mercado organizado.
Mercado mayorista: Generadores de electricidad (oferta).
Mercado minorista: Comercializadores (oferta) y clientes (demanda).
El diseño del mercado eléctrico puede ser un pool o un diseño basado en responsables de equilibrio. En un pool eléctrico, los agentes envían ofertas de venta al Operador del Mercado por cada una de sus centrales. Si el agente es además comercializador, deberá realizar una oferta de compra independiente de la venta de sus centrales. España e Italia son los dos países europeos más importantes con pool eléctrico.
Países como Alemania, Francia y Holanda optan por el diseño basado en la figura del responsable de equilibrio o balance responsible party: cada agente tiene un “perímetro de equilibrio” compuesto por entradas (producción de las centrales propias, importaciones) y salidas (venta a clientes, exportaciones,). Estos agentes envían al Operador del Mercado sus ofertas ya netas, sin necesidad de realizar ofertas individuales por cada una de sus centrales. Esta optimización lleva a que los agentes prefieran comprar energía en el mercado si el precio es menor que los costes de sus centrales o vender energía si el precio es superior al coste de producción.


Precio
El precio que pagan los consumidores finales se descompone en dos tramos: el precio de la energía (procedente de las actividades en competencia) y las tarifas o peajes de acceso (retribuye las actividades reguladas). En algunos países, como en España, a la tarifa de acceso se incluyen sobrecostes para incentivar las renovables. Las eléctricas convencionales acusan a la multimillonaria factura de las subvenciones a las renovables, y en especial a las fotovoltaicas. Por su parte, las empresas de renovables cargan contra las eléctricas tradicionales y les acusan de tener beneficios millonarios por plantas que, como las nucleares o las hidráulicas, estarían amortizadas, o que se aprovechan de un mercado mayorista (pool) al alza.
El precio es muy volátil y está influenciado por factores como: meteorología (las bajas temperaturas en invierno y las altas temperaturas en verano provocan un aumento de la demanda de electricidad), hidraulicidad, actividad económica, precio del carbón y gas en los mercados internacionales, capacidad de intercambio con los países vecinos, entre otros.
En concreto, según las estadísticas de Eurostat, los precios de la luz, sin impuestos, han subido entre 2004 y 2011 un 80%. El sistema eléctrico en España lleva más de una década generando lo que se denomina déficit de tarifa. Los precios, por mucho que hayan subido, son insuficientes para cubrir los costes.

 
Household* electricity prices including all taxes
Average price per 100 kWh in 2nd half of 2011
in €in €
1Denmark 29.818United Kingdom 15.8
2Germany 25.319Hungary 15.5
3Cyprus 24.120Slovenia 14.9
4Belgium 21.221Czech Republic 14.7
5Spain 20.922France 14.2
6Ireland 20.923Finland 13.7
7Italy 20.824Poland 13.5
8Sweden 20.425Latvia 13.4
9Austria 19.726Greece 12.4
10Euro area 19.327Lithuania 12.2
11Portugal 18.828Albania 11.6
12Norway 18.729Turkey 11.5
13EU27 18.430Croatia 11.5
14Netherlands 18.431Romania 10.9
15Slovakia 17.132Estonia 10.4
16Malta 1733Bulgaria 8.7
17Luxembourg 16.634Bosnia & Herzegovina 7.9
Elaboración propia con datos de Eurostat





Fuentes: Expansion.com, Eurostat “Mercados de Electricidad en Europa”, J.L. Rios, J.L Rapun, G.Relano, A.Chiarri

ENGLISH
Today we will talk about some peculiarities of the electricity market comp
ared to other energy commodities. The fact that electricity cannot be "stored" decisively affects its generation, marketing, transportation and distribution. That leads to a need to produce virtually the same amount it is consumed.

Generation: Electricity is produced in power stations classified according to the technology where the energy comes from: renewables (mainly hydro and wind), nuclear power, coal power plants, gas power plants, etc.
Marketing: It is a competitive market where traders seek and try to differentiate themselves through innovative new products or offers for electricity distribution: joint supply of gas and electricity, maintenance, etc.
Distribution: Contrary to the generation and marketing, transportation and distribution activities are natural monopolies.
System Operator: Manages ancillary services markets. It is a natural monopoly.
Market Operator: Organised market.
Wholesale Market: Electricity generators (supply).
Retail market: Traders (supply) and customers (demand).
The design of the electricity market can be a pool or a design based on a responsible party. In a power pool, the agents send selling offers to the Market Operator for each of its plants. If the agent is also a marketer, it must make an offer to buy independently from the sale of their plants. Spain and Italy are the two biggest European countries with electricity pool. Countries like Germany, France and the Netherlands opt for a market based on the responsible party: each agent has a "perimeter balance" of inputs (own power production, imports) and outputs (sales to customers, exports). These agents send to the Market Operator net bids, without the need for individual bids for each of their plants. This optimisation leads the agents to prefer to buy power on the market if the price is less than the cost of their power plants or to sell if the price is above the production cost.
Price
Price paid by final consumers is divided into two sections: the price of energy (from competing activities) and fees or access fees (rewards regulated activities). In some countries, such as Spain, there are extra fees to encourage the production of renewables. Conventional power suppliers accuse the billionaire bill caused by subsidies to renewables, especially photovoltaic. Meanwhile, renewable companies accuse traditional suppliers of having millionaire benefits from plants, such as nuclear or hydro, that are completely amortised.
Price volatility is influenced by factors such as weather (low temperatures in winter and high temperatures in summer lead to increased demand for electricity), water availability, economic activity, coal and gas prices in international markets, exchange capacity with neighboring countries, among others.
Specifically, according to Eurostat statistics, household electricity prices, no taxes included, have risen between 2004 and 2011 by 80%. The electrical system in Spain has been creating what is called tariff deficit for longer than a decade. Prices, however much they have risen, are insufficient to cover costs.


Sources: Expansion.com, Eurostat “Mercados de Electricidad en Europa”, J.L. Rios, J.L Rapun, G.Relano, A.Chiarri